← HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 72.8% | 55.7% | 60.6% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 15.4% | 30 | 61.7% | 57.2% | 52.8% | 52.2% | 1314 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 9 | 23.1% | 33 | 57.6% | 46.9% | 52.3% | 48.7% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 5.1% | 12 | 45.8% | 61.3% | 52.2% | 59.2% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 52.2% | 50.9% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.1% | 12 | 62.5% | 51.4% | 51.9% | 49.5% | 1341 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 5.1% | 12 | 50.0% | 48.3% | 49.5% | 50.7% | 1286 | — |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 7.7% | 16 | 50.0% | 55.4% | 49.3% | 52.1% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 7.7% | 12 | 37.5% | 43.5% | 49.2% | 50.6% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 7.7% | 16 | 56.2% | 48.4% | 48.4% | 46.7% | 1361 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 54.7% | 44.2% | 50.8% | 991 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.6% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 42.9% | 44.8% | 1140 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 2 | 5.1% | 12 | 37.5% | 37.3% | 40.8% | 41.8% | 1302 | — |
| 14 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.9% | 40.0% | 45.3% | 1036 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 2.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 36.7% | 40.0% | 43.8% | 994 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 37.1% | 35.3% | 41.9% | 1124 | ↓ low |