Fire ExiaTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck HVN Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 66 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Slate Whetstone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enrage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pierce the Heavens | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fervent Lancer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Subjugating Lash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Combat Training | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| General at Arms | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steel Halberd | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |