Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck HVN Regional
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-4-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1236
· median 1236
· range 1112–1359
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1119
Q3 1370
1590
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Exia | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
