Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck HVN Regional
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.7%
avg ELO -13.0 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1080
· median 1080
· range 1080–1080
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1119
Q3 1370
1590
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
