Fire SuzakuTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck HVN Regional
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.9%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1321
· range 1297–1345
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1119
Q3 1370
1590
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.3% | +2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
