Fire ExiaTier 2
at 8/16 DTR Online Regional
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
7-8-1
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
42.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1335–1435
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1251
Q3 1435
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
