Fire OblationTier 2
at 8/16 DTR Online Regional
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
18-2-4
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.0%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
68.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1493
· median 1493
· range 1452–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1251
Q3 1435
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.7% | 10 | 8-0-2 | 90.0% | 78.6% | 59.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Suited | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
