← 8/16 DTR Online Regional

Fire SuzakuTier 1

at 8/16 DTR Online Regional

decks
9 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55 27-24-4
overall winrate
52.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4% avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
48.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304 · median 1272 · range 1217–1426 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1251 Q3 1435 1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 41.7% 16 8-7-1 53.1% 52.5% 52.3% +0.9
Fire Aggro 12.5% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 42.0% -6.0
Wind Shadowstrike 12.5% 5 1-2-2 40.0% 44.4% 48.4% -0.9
Water Fractal 6.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.6% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 46.9% -2.0
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.5% +3.4
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.4% +10.2
Fire Crux Mage 2.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.2% +3.1
Fire Exia 2.8% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.5
Fire Oblation 2.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.7% +2.7
Fire Slimes 2.8% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 59.1% +5.8
Wind Allies 2.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.7% +1.6
Wind Astra Cleric 2.8% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 57.5% +5.6
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.8% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.4% +5.5
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.4% 0
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.4% 0
Fire Genbu 1.4% 0
Fire Suited 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +8.9
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.8% -7.9
Water Allies 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.2% +9.9
Water Beast 1.4% 0
Water Genbu 1.4% 0
Water Neos 1.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 44.5% -5.3
Water Tera Mage 1.4% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 1.4% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.4% 0
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Flamewreath Call. Losers more often ran: Ignis Deus, Crystallized Destiny, Smoke Out.

Played more by winners
Flamewreath Call
Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Ignis Deus
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Three of Hearts
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ignis Deus -0.75 0 3 0
Flamewreath Call +0.75 3 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -0.75 0 3 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 2 0
Focused Flames +0.50 2 0 0
Deflecting Edge +0.50 2 0 0
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion +0.50 2 0 2
Portentous Tanggu +0.50 2 0 2
Embercrypt Burn -0.25 0 1 3
Smoke Out -0.25 1 2 0
Three of Hearts -0.25 1 2 1
Demolition +0.25 1 0 3
Vengeful Paramour -0.25 0 1 3
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.25 0 1 1
Spark Alight -0.25 0 1 3
Beastbond Boots +0.25 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.25 0 1 0
Da Qiao, Cinderbinder -0.25 0 1 0
Expose Darkness +0.25 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.25 1 0 0
Blazing Bowman -0.25 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +0.00 1 1 2
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 1
Shatter the Brittle +0.00 1 1 2
Fiery Interference +0.00 1 1 2
Under Fire +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/30822/archetypes/Fire Suzaku