Fire Umbra GuardianTier 3
at 8/16 DTR Online Regional
decks
1
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1205
· median 1205
· range 1205–1205
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1251
Q3 1435
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
