← 8/16 DTR Online Regional

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at 8/16 DTR Online Regional

decks
9 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55 17-26-12
overall winrate
41.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2% avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
46.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341 · median 1377 · range 1160–1460 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1251 Q3 1435 1730
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 41.7% 16 4-8-4 37.5% 40.0% 47.7% -0.9
Fire Aggro 12.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.2% +10.0
Fire Suzaku 12.5% 5 2-1-2 60.0% 55.6% 51.6% +0.9
Water Fractal 6.9% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.6% +0.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.6% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 43.3% -4.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -1.1
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.8% +2.9
Fire Crux Mage 2.8% 0
Fire Exia 2.8% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 47.7% -1.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.8% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 50.1% +0.1
Fire Oblation 2.8% 0
Fire Slimes 2.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.6% -2.3
Wind Allies 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Wind Astra Cleric 2.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 48.1% -1.8
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 54.9% +4.7
Fire Astra Cleric 1.4% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.0% +4.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.3% -7.5
Fire Genbu 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.3% -4.3
Fire Suited 1.4% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.7% +2.8
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.4% 0
Water Allies 1.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.6% -0.6
Water Beast 1.4% 0
Water Genbu 1.4% 0
Water Neos 1.4% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.4% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.3% -5.9
Wind Razorgale 1.4% 0
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Verdigris Decree. Losers more often ran: Zephyr.

Played more by winners
Verdigris Decree
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -0.67 0 2 1
Beseech the Winds +0.67 2 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.67 2 0 0
Dream Fairy +0.67 2 0 1
Tristan, Shadowreaver -0.67 0 2 0
Innervate Agility -0.67 0 2 0
Reclaim -0.33 0 1 2
Aesan Protector +0.33 1 0 2
Veiling Breeze -0.33 0 1 2
Slice and Dice -0.33 0 1 2
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 1 0 1
Assassin's Ripper +0.33 1 0 2
Verdigris Decree +0.33 2 1 0
Fairy Whispers +0.33 1 0 2
Tariff Ring -0.33 0 1 2
Zephyr -0.33 1 2 0
Penumbral Waltz -0.33 0 1 1
Expose Darkness +0.33 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide -0.33 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition -0.33 0 1 0
Blackmarket Broker -0.33 0 1 0
Art of War +0.33 1 0 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.00 1 1 1
Safeguard Paragon +0.00 1 1 0
Dungeon Guide +0.00 1 1 1
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 1
Tempest Downfall +0.00 1 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.00 1 1 1
Scatter Essence +0.00 1 1 0
Dreamy Unicorn +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/30822/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike