EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Illusive Webcam Regionals .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 49.1% | 59.0% | 50.3% | 1652 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 7.9% | 33 | 71.2% | 54.3% | 57.5% | 51.6% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.5% | 54.9% | 53.7% | 1386 | — |
| 4 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 44.0% | 53.8% | 49.1% | 1608 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.2% | 53.8% | 51.6% | 1424 | — |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 62.5% | 52.8% | 53.9% | 1404 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 9.5% | 31 | 51.6% | 50.2% | 52.7% | 51.4% | 1410 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 2 | 3.2% | 12 | 54.2% | 50.8% | 52.5% | 51.4% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 6 | 9.5% | 34 | 52.9% | 48.8% | 52.4% | 49.8% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 7 | 11.1% | 40 | 57.5% | 52.7% | 51.5% | 51.0% | 1399 | — |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 49.2% | 50.0% | 1393 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 3 | 4.8% | 15 | 36.7% | 45.9% | 48.3% | 49.5% | 1418 | — |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 4 | 6.3% | 25 | 54.0% | 49.8% | 48.2% | 48.9% | 1400 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 9 | 14.3% | 47 | 45.7% | 50.6% | 46.7% | 49.6% | 1331 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Allies | 3 | 4.8% | 17 | 44.1% | 48.3% | 46.4% | 47.8% | 1383 | — |
| 16 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.3% | 46.2% | 46.7% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 42.9% | 57.2% | 46.1% | 52.2% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Suited | 2 | 3.2% | 13 | 42.3% | 49.7% | 45.8% | 49.3% | 1328 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Neos | 2 | 3.2% | 10 | 45.0% | 47.3% | 43.8% | 46.7% | 1368 | — |
| 20 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 25.0% | 49.8% | 43.7% | 49.9% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 3.2% | 13 | 42.3% | 42.6% | 42.2% | 45.7% | 1439 | — |
| 22 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 8.3% | 41.6% | 40.7% | 47.3% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 45.6% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 1425 | — |
| 24 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 44.3% | 40.0% | 47.4% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 28.6% | 49.3% | 39.7% | 47.1% | 1131 | ↓ low |