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Water AlliesTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.9% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.4% | -4.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |