← DTR Regional - Reaper Game Store
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at DTR Regional - Reaper Game Store
decks
3
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-8-2
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1157
· median 1152
· range 1142–1178
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1173
Q3 1404
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.8% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
