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Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 13 | 7-2-4 | 69.2% | 64.7% | 59.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 38.0% | -6.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.8% | -25.9 |
| Wind Beast | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Obsequious Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fight for the Crown | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |