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Wind ArcaneTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.2% | +10.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +15.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arcanist's Prism | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three Visits | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |