← Time Capsule Store Championship
Fire AetherwingTier 1
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1247
· median 1247
· range 1247–1247
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1226
Q3 1414
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
