← Time Capsule Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
11-2-0
overall winrate
84.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.5%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
60.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1372
· median 1372
· range 1237–1507
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1226
Q3 1414
1560
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.2% | +5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
