← Time Capsule Store Championship
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Time Capsule Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |