← Time Capsule Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
40.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1105
· median 1105
· range 1105–1105
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1226
Q3 1414
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
