← Time Capsule Store Championship
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1009
· median 1009
· range 1009–1009
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1226
Q3 1414
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
