← Time Capsule Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-7-0
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1474
· range 1388–1560
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1226
Q3 1414
1560
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.8% | -5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
