← Time Capsule Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at Time Capsule Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.5% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.8% | +7.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 75 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 75 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |