EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ArtofCards DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Oblation

57.2%

5.6% share · 17 matches

1st

Fire Luxem Assassin

59.3%

5.6% share · 14 matches

3rd

Fire Rile

55.4%

66.7% share · 80 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.6%	14	71.4%	68.4%	59.3%	61.8%	1336	—
2	Fire Oblation	2	5.6%	17	67.6%	58.2%	57.2%	55.4%	1398	—
3	Fire Rile	24	66.7%	80	57.5%	54.5%	55.4%	54.5%	1402	—
4	Horse and Taxes	5	13.9%	26	61.5%	62.8%	55.1%	56.6%	1351	—
5	Water Genbu	3	8.3%	25	46.0%	47.2%	49.9%	50.4%	1484	↑ top
6	Wind Wakeup Combo	4	11.1%	23	43.5%	45.8%	46.6%	47.8%	1312	↓ low
7	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	2.8%	10	40.0%	50.6%	45.5%	50.3%	1139	↓ low
8	Fire Crux Mage	8	22.2%	33	45.5%	37.7%	44.1%	39.9%	1420	—
9	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	2.8%	4	25.0%	37.9%	43.2%	43.4%	1321	↓ low
10	Fire Exia	3	8.3%	13	38.5%	47.6%	41.9%	46.4%	1400	—
11	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.8%	8	37.5%	41.5%	39.9%	39.2%	1410	—
12	Fire Aetherwing	1	2.8%	6	16.7%	47.6%	37.5%	47.5%	1305	↓ low
13	Wind Shadowstrike	3	8.3%	19	26.3%	34.1%	36.9%	38.9%	1332	↓ low