Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DeckaDice QLD DTR Regionals
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-4-2
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.0%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1315
· median 1315
· range 1295–1335
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1299
1617
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
