Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DeckaDice QLD DTR Regionals
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-1-2
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.0%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
57.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1502
· median 1502
· range 1502–1502
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1299
1617
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.6% | +8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
