Fire SuzakuTier 1

at DeckaDice QLD DTR Regionals

decks

3 (8.6% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

18 13-5-0

overall winrate

72.2%

ELO-adjusted winrate

64.3% avg ELO +5.6 per match

expected value

56.9% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

55.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↑ top

mean ELO 1318 · median 1332 · range 1211–1410 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)

1002 Q1 1156 Q3 1299 1617

67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Slimes	11.4%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.0%	+11.2
Water Aetherwing	11.4%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	60.3%	+9.9
Wind Allies	8.6%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	39.0%	-8.2
Wind Shadowstrike	8.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	60.4%	+16.6
Fire Crux Mage	5.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.7%	+1.7
Wind Seiryuu	5.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	56.5%	+6.2
Fire Crux Lorraine	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Firebloom Burn	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Lorraine	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Oblation	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Silvie	2.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.4%	+13.5
Fire Umbra Ciel	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Astra Cleric	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Crux Mage	2.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.6%	+10.6
Water Genbu	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Ravishing Mill	2.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	55.6%	+9.0
Water Umbra Guardian	2.9%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.9%	-0.1
Wind Crux Lorraine	2.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.4%	+15.0
Wind Lorraine	2.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Tera Silvie	2.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.9%	+14.3

Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Expose Darkness, Staggering Strike. Losers more often ran: March Hare, Mottled Host, Reduce to Ash, Ignis Deus.

↑ Played more by winners