Water AetherwingTier 2
at DeckaDice QLD DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.4% | -8.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sidestep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |