← Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025

decks
6 (7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47 25-19-3
overall winrate
56.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.5% avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
52.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1368 · median 1339 · range 1255–1599 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074 Q1 1218 Q3 1406 1599
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 27.5% 11 4-6-1 40.9% 43.3% 49.6% -0.2
Wind Allies 10.0% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 56.1% +3.5
Wind Shadowstrike 10.0% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 62.0% +7.7
Fire Suzaku 8.8% 5 1-2-2 40.0% 44.4% 50.1% +0.1
Fire Aggro 6.2% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 27.3% -17.0
Wind Astra Cleric 6.2% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 68.0% +11.5
Wind Seiryuu 6.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.8% +11.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.7% +18.7
Water Allies 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.7
Water Astra Ranger 5.0% 0
Fire Oblation 3.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.9% +13.3
Slimes 2.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.4% -2.5
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.5% 0
Wind Razorgale 2.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.0
Fire Aetherwing 1.2% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.2% 0
Fire Suited 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.9% -25.7
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.2% 0
Water Aetherwing 1.2% 0
Water Astra Diana 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.3
Water Fractal 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.7% -10.1
Water Umbra Guardian 1.2% 0
Wind Ciel 1.2% 0
Wind Dawn of Ashes 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.5% +12.0
Wind Lorraine 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.1% +11.4
Wind Slice & Dice 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.1% +22.5
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 2 0
Sudden Steel +1.00 2 0 0
Spark Alight +1.00 2 0 0
Orb of Sealing -0.50 0 1 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +0.50 1 0 1
Reduce to Ash +0.50 1 0 1
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.50 0 1 0
Tether in Flames -0.50 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.50 1 0 0
Sword of Shadows -0.50 0 1 0
Exorcise Curses +0.50 1 0 0
Lurid Dreaming -0.50 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +0.50 1 0 1
Fluffy Shopkeep -0.50 0 1 0
Backup Charger -0.50 0 1 1
Flame Sweep -0.50 0 1 1
Crux Sight +0.50 1 0 1
Evercurrent Raider +0.50 1 0 1
Cremation Ritual -0.50 0 1 1
Favorable Winds +0.50 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.50 1 0 1
The Looking Glass -0.50 0 1 1
Spirit Blade: Ascension +0.50 1 0 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.50 1 0 0
Annul Spell +0.50 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire -0.50 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +0.50 1 0 0
Mystic Purifier -0.50 0 1 0
Unyielding Wraithguard +0.50 1 0 0
Thunderclap -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.50 1 0 0
Fast Cure +0.50 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -0.50 0 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte -0.50 0 1 0
Consumption Ring +0.50 1 0 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +0.00 1 1 0
Hasty Messenger +0.00 1 1 0
Regal Inquisition +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/31647/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage