← Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 27.5% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.1% | +3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.8% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.3% | -17.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Slimes | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |