← Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
Water FractalTier 2
at Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1401–1401
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1218
Q3 1406
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 27.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.4% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
