← Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
Water AlliesTier 2
at Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
decks
4
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
8-13-2
overall winrate
39.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1210
· median 1216
· range 1120–1288
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1218
Q3 1406
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 27.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.8% | -7.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.9% | +5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
