← Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025

decks
4 (5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55 26-20-9
overall winrate
55.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5% avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
52.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1479 · median 1486 · range 1369–1575 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074 Q1 1218 Q3 1406 1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 27.5% 21 7-10-4 42.9% 44.0% 41.4% -3.3
Wind Allies 10.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.0% +7.7
Wind Shadowstrike 10.0% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 72.1% +16.5
Fire Suzaku 8.8% 10 2-5-3 35.0% 39.3% 42.8% -3.2
Fire Crux Mage 7.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.3% -18.7
Fire Aggro 6.2% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 33.4% -9.6
Wind Astra Cleric 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.9% +15.8
Wind Seiryuu 6.2% 0
Water Allies 5.0% 0
Water Astra Ranger 5.0% 0
Fire Oblation 3.8% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 66.4% +10.5
Slimes 2.5% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.2% +13.7
Wind Razorgale 2.5% 0
Fire Aetherwing 1.2% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.1% +11.3
Fire Suited 1.2% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 39.9% -7.6
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.2% 0
Water Aetherwing 1.2% 0
Water Astra Diana 1.2% 0
Water Fractal 1.2% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 1.2% 0
Wind Ciel 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.5% +16.8
Wind Dawn of Ashes 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.0% +3.2
Wind Lorraine 1.2% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 1.2% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Uncover the Plot -1.00 0 1 0
Rile the Abyss +1.00 1 0 0
Planted Explosive -1.00 0 1 0
Undying Dreams +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Vanish from Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Striking Illuminance +1.00 1 0 0
Scry the Skies -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Reprogram -1.00 0 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Thieving Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Art of War +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/31647/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin