← DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |