← DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Water FractalTier 2
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1401–1401
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1147
Q3 1347
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
