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Fire ExiaTier 1
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fervent Lancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |