← DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
SlimesTier 2
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereal Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Key Slime Pudding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blue Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lead with Force | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Green Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Avatar of Gaia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smack with Flute | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |