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Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glowering Conflagration | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |