← DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-3-0
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.2%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
56.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1578
· median 1578
· range 1558–1599
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1147
Q3 1347
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
