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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |