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Water FractalTier 2
at Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Triskit | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |