← Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
7-4-0
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1382
· median 1382
· range 1256–1509
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1138
Q3 1343
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
