← Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1460
· median 1460
· range 1321–1599
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1138
Q3 1343
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
