← Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-6-0
overall winrate
14.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.6%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
41.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1013
· median 1013
· range 1013–1013
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1138
Q3 1343
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Triskit | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
