EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 三咖啡店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.0% | 8 | 93.8% | 64.8% | 61.1% | 55.2% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Zander | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 68.9% | 59.1% | 62.4% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.0% | 8 | 68.8% | 45.6% | 57.6% | 49.8% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 62.9% | 57.1% | 56.2% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 4.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 58.8% | 56.5% | 53.8% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 38.1% | 55.5% | 49.5% | 1296 | — |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 61.4% | 54.0% | 60.4% | 1247 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.0% | 51.4% | 51.9% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 12.0% | 15 | 43.3% | 49.1% | 50.1% | 50.4% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.8% | 48.6% | 47.9% | 1276 | — |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 24.0% | 17 | 38.2% | 40.2% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 1304 | — |
| 12 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.4% | 47.3% | 46.9% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.5% | 46.4% | 47.5% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 12.0% | 14 | 32.1% | 44.7% | 45.7% | 48.3% | 1291 | — |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 32.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 39.5% | 38.0% | 45.1% | 1205 | ↓ low |