← HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
Fire AggroTier 1
at HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 32.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |