← HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
Water AetherwingTier 2
at HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1341
· range 1341–1341
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1161
Q3 1427
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 32.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
