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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 32.6% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 26.3% | -13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |