← HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
Fire RileTier 1
at HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships
decks
14
(32.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
46-24-4
overall winrate
64.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
57.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1389
· median 1377
· range 1125–1668
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1161
Q3 1427
1668
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
7% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 73.7% | +13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 53.0% | +1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.0% | +9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.4% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Byakko | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.0 |
| Slimes | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.7 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.3% | +4.0 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Vermilion Decree, Spirit of Fire. Losers more often ran: Crux Sight, Fragmented Spirit of Fire, Fluffy Shopkeep.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Vermilion Decree
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Vengeful Paramour
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 169 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 149 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | -0.60 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Fireball | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.30 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.30 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.30 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malevolent Vow | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fleeting Guard | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Punishing Cartridge | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manaflare Barrage | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |