← Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 6.5% | 8 | 81.2% | 52.2% | 58.7% | 50.9% | 1496 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 6.5% | 8 | 81.2% | 64.9% | 57.3% | 55.4% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.5% | 10 | 65.0% | 45.6% | 56.5% | 50.2% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 9.7% | 19 | 63.2% | 57.8% | 56.4% | 54.1% | 1268 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 75.0% | 60.1% | 55.3% | 53.7% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.2% | 52.9% | 51.4% | 1315 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 9.7% | 13 | 61.5% | 61.1% | 52.5% | 53.9% | 1298 | — |
| 8 | Fire Rile | 6 | 19.4% | 28 | 51.8% | 53.1% | 50.1% | 50.4% | 1262 | — |
| 9 | Wind Cats | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 58.1% | 49.3% | 53.5% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 49.2% | 48.2% | 1288 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 41.0% | 47.6% | 45.6% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 42.6% | 47.1% | 47.9% | 1109 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 65.5% | 45.3% | 51.8% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 4 | 12.9% | 18 | 33.3% | 39.7% | 45.2% | 47.2% | 1343 | — |
| 15 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 45.0% | 47.2% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 9.7% | 14 | 39.3% | 44.1% | 44.9% | 46.7% | 1252 | — |
| 17 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 43.8% | 45.3% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Exia | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 40.1% | 43.5% | 47.3% | 978 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.5% | 10 | 15.0% | 34.3% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 1188 | ↓ low |