← Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Wakeup Combo 2 6.5% 8 81.2% 52.2% 58.7% 50.9% 1496 ↑ top
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 6.5% 8 81.2% 64.9% 57.3% 55.4% 1392 ↑ top
3 Wind Seiryuu 2 6.5% 10 65.0% 45.6% 56.5% 50.2% 1367 ↑ top
4 Fire Aggro 3 9.7% 19 63.2% 57.8% 56.4% 54.1% 1268
5 Water Genbu 1 3.2% 6 75.0% 60.1% 55.3% 53.7% 1427 ↑ top
6 Wind Astra Cleric 1 3.2% 7 57.1% 51.2% 52.9% 51.4% 1315
7 Wind Shadowstrike 3 9.7% 13 61.5% 61.1% 52.5% 53.9% 1298
8 Fire Rile 6 19.4% 28 51.8% 53.1% 50.1% 50.4% 1262
9 Wind Cats 1 3.2% 6 50.0% 58.1% 49.3% 53.5% 1073 ↓ low
10 Water Allies 1 3.2% 5 50.0% 46.5% 49.2% 48.2% 1288
11 Fire Suited 1 3.2% 7 42.9% 41.0% 47.6% 45.6% 1395 ↑ top
12 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 3.2% 6 33.3% 42.6% 47.1% 47.9% 1109 ↓ low
13 Fire Suzaku 1 3.2% 6 50.0% 65.5% 45.3% 51.8% 1172 ↓ low
14 Wind Allies 4 12.9% 18 33.3% 39.7% 45.2% 47.2% 1343
15 Wind Razorgale 1 3.2% 5 40.0% 47.1% 45.0% 47.2% 1474 ↑ top
16 Fire Crux Mage 3 9.7% 14 39.3% 44.1% 44.9% 46.7% 1252
17 Water Astra Ranger 1 3.2% 6 33.3% 42.2% 43.8% 45.3% 1396 ↑ top
18 Wind Exia 1 3.2% 6 16.7% 40.1% 43.5% 47.3% 978 ↓ low
19 Water Fractal 2 6.5% 10 15.0% 34.3% 40.0% 43.7% 1188 ↓ low