← BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.8% | 55.0% | 57.5% | 1256 | — |
| 2 | Fire Rile | 8 | 26.7% | 34 | 67.6% | 59.1% | 54.7% | 51.7% | 1412 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 57.4% | 54.3% | 51.0% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.7% | 11 | 63.6% | 65.1% | 54.2% | 58.3% | 1254 | — |
| 5 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.3% | 7 | 71.4% | 51.0% | 52.5% | 47.8% | 1345 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 13.3% | 18 | 61.1% | 53.2% | 52.1% | 51.6% | 1302 | — |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.7% | 12 | 66.7% | 54.2% | 52.0% | 49.6% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 2 | 6.7% | 12 | 33.3% | 49.0% | 49.1% | 53.5% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Diana | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.8% | 47.7% | 50.4% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 45.3% | 47.4% | 43.2% | 1287 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 45.0% | 47.6% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | 47.3% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.7% | 44.2% | 49.0% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.9% | 42.0% | 44.1% | 1340 | — |
| 15 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 37.8% | 41.2% | 45.4% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.3% | 7 | 28.6% | 42.9% | 40.4% | 44.6% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Wind Exia | 1 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.6% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 43.2% | 40.0% | 43.2% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.7% | 8 | 12.5% | 32.5% | 39.6% | 43.7% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.4% | 37.0% | 34.3% | 1550 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 35.6% | 42.5% | 1104 | ↓ low |