EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.0% | 56.4% | 54.6% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Rile | 5 | 22.7% | 22 | 72.7% | 60.1% | 55.7% | 53.2% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 18.2% | 18 | 72.2% | 59.0% | 54.8% | 52.4% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.5% | 10 | 65.0% | 57.9% | 52.9% | 52.1% | 1278 | — |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 56.4% | 52.1% | 51.6% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 66.2% | 52.1% | 54.2% | 1252 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.5% | 8 | 62.5% | 62.8% | 51.5% | 54.9% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 57.1% | 60.2% | 48.5% | 51.7% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 45.7% | 46.7% | 1216 | — |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.1% | 45.5% | 47.2% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 37.2% | 45.3% | 44.9% | 1305 | — |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 50.6% | 45.0% | 48.6% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 42.1% | 45.0% | 44.5% | 1276 | — |
| 14 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 9.1% | 11 | 27.3% | 34.1% | 42.0% | 43.0% | 1245 | — |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 28.6% | 46.3% | 41.9% | 46.3% | 1103 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.8% | 41.7% | 45.9% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Suited | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 10.0% | 33.1% | 41.1% | 45.8% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 26.1% | 37.3% | 37.9% | 1086 | ↓ low |